World Series Game 7 Postmortem

It’s interesting how life teaches you lessons through the tarot. The flaw in my first attempt to predict the outcome of the final World Series game was in using a coin-flip to decide which team to place in the top row of the spread, rather than following the traditional practice of putting the visiting team – which bats at the top of each inning – in that spot. If I had done that, nearly everything I said about the Dodgers would have applied to the Astros instead, especially the part about finding their “mojo” and getting a sterling performance out of their relief pitcher(s). The 5-1 final score in favor of the Astros is a mirror image of the prediction I made for a 5-1 Dodgers win, and all of the Astros’ five runs came by the second inning, the point at which I predicted the Dodgers would have scored five. As the saying goes, “live and learn.”

This would not have helped my “box-score” method of reading, though, which clearly needs fine-tuning and may not be effective in the final analysis. Using reversals for “no-score” innings seems to be a workable technique, but applying the minor cards Ace through Five to the positive scoring events is too liberal an approach that produces bloated results. It worked with the full deck for NFL football last year, where incremental scoring numbers are larger and there are only four “bins” (quarters) rather than nine (innings) to populate. I’m going to  continue using this pair of spreads for predicting American football games as a run-up to the next Super Bowl. (European football scoring is too minimal to be a good fit, as is hockey output, while basketball totals are too high unless I change the numerical model.)

This was an entertaining exercise that shows promise once I get everything dialed in.

 

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